Were “Project Fear” Predictions Over-Exaggerated?

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Politics

Those who are in favour of Brexit have always pointed to the fact that the Remain side were guilty of creating a “Project Fear” (see here) sort of mentality when campaigning, and during the aftermath of Brexit. Brexit supports claim that these fears were grossly exaggerated and turned out to be entirely false.

For example, one of the predictions from the remain side of the argument was that there would be  a mass exodus of City jobs from the London financial district. Remain supporters predicted that over 230,000 jobs would be lost during the referendum campaign in the event of a no-deal Brexit. In fact, it has turned out that just under 2000 jobs would be lost in the event of the UK leaving the EU with no-deal. Of course, any job losses should try to be avoided, but such differences between the predicted and the now likely figure play into this “Project Fear” idea. In fact, some websites such as the Financial Times and Amazing Moves have predicted that some EU asset managers are even considering moving into the UK. This is a direct contrast to the predictions laid out by the Remain side.

It recently came to light that EU fund managers were extremely angry over proposed EU rules, which would all but force them into trading dual-listed shares on what many to consider to be uncompetitive EU exchanges after Brexit. This would happen if the Commission were to refuse to give these EU fund managers unfettered access to London after the UK leaves the EU.

The German Investment Funds Association ( https://www.linkedin.com/company/deutscher-fondsverband-bvi) were quick to come out against the commission saying that they were indeed likely to move some of their operations to London should they not have free access to London after Brexit, in what could be worrying news for EU negotiators. It could be said that the pull and attraction of London as the financial capital of the world could be too big for the EU to ignore, and financial jobs may indeed flood into the UK after Brexit.

Whilst it is impossible to make predictions, it is safe to say that some of the predictions made by the Remain side have not come to pass. However, it is clear that some predictions made by the Leave side were also wide of the mark. All we do know is that nobody knows what the future relationship of the UK will be like with the EU post-Brexit. Watch this space!

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